Who Is In The Most Trouble Brazil Germany Or Argentina

So what can Germany do? Only with better counterpressing from the forward line and midfield — to prevent opponents from striding through the center of the pitch with ease as Mexico did — can Germany regain its defensive strength. Coach Joachim Low started only two central midfielders, Toni Kroos and Sami Khedira, in order to get playmakers Mesut Ozil and Thomas Muller into the lineup behind a central striker. A personnel shift that adds another central midfielder to the mix while dropping an advanced creator seems like the obvious next step. Of course, this isn’t as easy as just scribbling a new name on the lineup sheet. Player positions and relationships will have to be reconsidered and restructured. Mexico exposed Low’s first lineup, and now he needs to identify a backup plan and get his players ready to go with it in just a few days. The task is great.A similar tactical problem looms for Argentina. While La Albiceleste did not see its chance of advancing go down by a large margin, it was in trouble from the moment it was placed in a group full of such capable defensive sides as Croatia, Iceland and Nigeria. With a 32 percent chance of being eliminated before the knockouts, Argentina should be worried.And what went wrong against Iceland does not seem easy to solve. Argentina attempted 26 shots against Iceland but generated only about 1.1 expected goals, a rate of about 0.04 expected goals per shot. The only teams in the tournament that have created lower-quality shooting chances are Saudi Arabia and Tunisia.You would expect a team with Lionel Messi to be creating good scoring chances. But Argentina has a problem: Messi is tasked with bringing the ball forward from defense to attack. If Messi must pick up the ball in deep areas, who will make the pass or run near the penalty area to break open the defense? According to the statistical company Impect, which tracks whether passes took a team beyond an opposition defensive player, Argentina’s passes only bypassed a defender 23 times, the fourth-fewest of any team in the World Cup through the first four days.At the same time, Iceland created about 0.9 expected goals on eight shot attempts, a rate of 0.11 expected goals per shot,1Ninth-highest in the tournament so far, only slightly behind Mexico’s 0.13. showing that Iceland was able to create good scoring opportunities despite Argentina’s conservative approach. If Argentina’s defense can be exploited like this, it’s hard to suggest that coach Jorge Sampaoli should bring on a more attack-minded midfielder like Ever Banega and risk opening up further at the back. A counterpress could also work, but Argentina already tried that. Sampaoli drilled his players to press high up the field and seek to create turnovers that could give them new possession in advanced areas, but the team’s middling results and underlying numbers from qualifying suggest that has not worked either. It may be that the only real solution is hoping that Messi puts together a truly legendary tournament and covers both creative roles, advancing the ball through the midfield and beating the defenders.By contrast, Brazil’s exceptionally talented roster should not have to depend on one player. But against Switzerland, it did. Although its goal came from a brilliant individual finish by Philippe Coutinho, in general, Brazil tried to ride Neymar to victory. The creative winger was constantly on the ball and, more than that, constantly tasked with beating a man to create space for the attack to move forward. Eighteen times Neymar was involved in a one-on-one with a defender. This is high even for Neymar, who averaged about 10 one-on-ones per match for Paris Saint-Germain. But while Neymar was successful about 60 percent of the time in the French league, here he struggled, winning only five of 18 contests. Switzerland consistently bodied and often fouled Neymar, leaving him unable to progress the ball as he usually does. And while that could just be a fluky bad game from Neymar, Brazil has reason to worry. The draw against Switzerland was Neymar’s first match back from injury, and before the game, Brazilian coach Tite said Neymar was not fully fit. Brazil struggled to break down Switzerland because, time and again, its attack waited for Neymar to beat a defender, and he couldn’t do it.Unlike Argentina, however, Brazil already has the players to lean on while Neymar works himself back into shape. Coutinho and Marcelo are elite passers, while Willian adds about 3.5 complete dribbles per 90 minutes, 12th highest among players in the big five leagues with at least 2000 minutes played. None of them alone can do what Neymar usually does, but Brazil’s starting lineup as a collective can carry some of Neymar’s workload. What will be required for Brazil, rather, is that the team rebalance the attacking load until its superstar is fully fit. Brazil has the talent to continue to roll without Neymar at 100 percent, if it can limit his responsibilities.All of these teams remain favored to escape their groups. But a shocking early exit is possible for Germany and Argentina if they cannot solve some major problems. Brazil should be able to continue and succeed without Neymar at his best, at least for a while. But to reach or win the final, all three teams must make important changes.Check out our latest World Cup predictions. The World Cup has been full of surprises. Of the five teams rated most likely to win the World Cup before the tournament by FiveThirtyEight’s Soccer Power Index, only France won its first match. Spain, Argentina and Brazil could manage only draws, and worse yet, Germany lost to Mexico. While Spain’s 3-3 draw against Portugal can be excused — Cristiano Ronaldo’s team is rated the eighth-best side in the tournament and has legitimate hopes of winning the whole thing — the other three face larger problems.Germany’s difficulty may be the most acute. While Argentina and Brazil saw their chances of reaching the knockout round go down only slightly (77 percent to 68 percent for Argentina and 89 percent to 85 percent for Brazil), Germany is suddenly at risk of being the third consecutive defending World Cup champion to go out in the group stages. Die Mannschaft’s odds of reaching the round of 16 plummeted from 90 percent to 64 percent.Germany can’t say the loss was undeserved. Mexico created more expected goals, a statistical estimate of the quality of scoring chances, than Germany did, with the Mexican counterattack ripping up the German defense even when it did not create shots. Eight times in the match, Mexican players combined to move the ball straight through midfield — with more than 50 percent of ball movement directly toward the goal — and into the German penalty area. Though only four of those ended in shots, one produced a goal.That Hirving Lozano game-winning goal was the most devastating example of this counterattack. It starts with an open-play turnover, leading to a few quick passes and runs, a couple of defenders beaten on the dribble and a pass into the penalty area. The map below shows the Lozano goal and three other moves like it. If Mexico had been more clinical in creating good shots from these moves, the result could have been even worse for Germany. read more

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Not always greener on the Urban side for Ohio States new coach

At the Fawcett Center on Ohio State’s campus Monday night, some clapped as Urban Meyer was introduced as the 24th coach in OSU football history, but others remain skeptical. The six-year, $24 million contract Meyer signed earlier that day has stirred Buckeye Nation just days after the conclusion of a 6-6 regular-season campaign. The former University of Florida coach arrives at OSU as it awaits a final ruling from the NCAA regarding rule infractions committed by the football program, though OSU’s newest hire also departed a Florida program that was rife with off-field transgressions. The Associated Press reported Monday that 27 UF players were arrested a combined 30 times during Meyer’s tenure in Gainesville, Fla. Meyer said during the Monday press conference that the reports of charges against his former players were inflated. “I see numbers of arrests and the numbers I see are exaggerated,” Meyer said. “We’ve had a pretty good track record. We ran some bumps in the road at the University of Florida. Does that mean we had bad kids? I’ll fight that forever. No, absolutely not ­— we did not have bad guys. Did they make stupid mistakes? Yeah, I’ve made a few stupid mistakes.” George Diaz, a sports columnist for the Orlando Sentinel in Orlando, Fla., said that it’s on Meyer to choose to deny documented arrests and cases against UF players that ranged from marijuana busts to domestic violence. “(Meyer) certainly had some issues with discipline and keeping everyone in order,” Diaz said. “That’s on his record. It doesn’t overshadow everything that he has done, which is a lot of great things, but it’s a part of his permanent record.” Tom Green, a UF student and sports editor of The Independent Florida Alligator, said that the off-field arrests and run-ins with law enforcement by UF players made headlines in the Sunshine State. “It got a lot of headlines because of the number of arrests,” Green said. “It got a lot of attention. A lot of the arrests were either marijuana related or underage drinking and, you know, stuff that a lot of college students get arrested for.” Green said he disagreed with Meyer’s claim that the charges against UF players were exaggerated. “(Players) got arrested and it got reported,” Green said. “The arrests just piled up over the years.” OSU athletic director Gene Smith said that should OSU receive a bid to a postseason bowl game, Meyer would not be involved with preparing or coaching the team for the game. Once Meyer takes the reigns at OSU, he said he would apply a set of core values that will help Buckeye players stay out of trouble. “We have a set of core values. Honesty (and) respect,” Meyer said. “Number one, treat everyone with respect. Number 2, no drugs, no stealing, no weapons. Those are core value issues. You’re either dismissed or you miss a good bunch of time playing the game.” Both Diaz and Green said a bitter taste will remain in the mouths of Florida fans because Meyer, who left college football to address health concerns and family issues, returned to the sidelines so soon. “Florida fans are understandably disgruntled and upset and confused,” Diaz said. “There’s a lot of emotions going on. I think (Florida fans) are just upset by the mixed signals he’s sending out by taking the (OSU) job.” Green agreed. “Just from what I’ve seen from friends, Facebook and on Twitter and online, all of the people are mad because they didn’t think that (Meyer) would do that,” Green said. “A lot of them feel betrayed.” Meyer said during his introduction as OSU coach that he would always consider himself a member of the Florida family, having won two national championships in Gainesville. Green said he didn’t think those words would console many Gators fans. “I personally don’t think he lied to (Florida fans),” Green said. “An opportunity of a lifetime presented itself to him and he couldn’t turn that down. (Fans) shouldn’t feel betrayed.” Meyer boasts a 104-23 overall record in 10 seasons as an NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision coach, as well as a 7-1 mark in bowl games and a 4-0 record in Bowl Championship Series games. Diaz said OSU fans can look forward to having one of the most talented and capable coaches in the country patrolling the Ohio Stadium sidelines when the 2012 season begins. That isn’t to say there aren’t potential draw backs to having Meyer lead OSU football. “He’s gone through some significant health issues and had to deal with some family matters. He said he’s come out of it differently and will approach things differently,” Diaz said. “Now, we’ll see if that new approach changes what transpires on the field. That’s the great unknown.” OSU (6-6, 3-5) is currently awaiting a postseason bowl bid. read more

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In This Issue   Investors continue to worry abou

first_imgIn This Issue.*  Investors continue to worry about the Cyprus bank rescue… *  King wants more stimulus for the UK economy… *  Yen gets back to its downward spiral… *  Gold sees some buying on fear…And, Now, Today’s Pfennig For Your Thoughts!Questions continue regarding the Cyprus bank rescue…Good day… It was all about the little island of Cyprus yesterday, with international investors seeking shelter from what at times appeared to be the beginning of another round of the never-ending European debt crisis.  But by the end of the day it appeared the EU policy makers would take a softer stance, and perhaps an ‘alternative’ solution could be found for the island’s banking woes.  At least some of the focus will shift back over to the US today as we get a first look at housing data for the month of February.  Housing starts are expected to have posted good gains, with an even larger increase expected in the more forward looking Building Permits data.  Good US housing data would go a long way to help calm the markets but the focus will quickly shift back over the pond to Europe as the bank holiday in Cyprus is extended.It looks like depositors in Cyprus banks may get a reprieve from the levy which was announced over the weekend.  Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades called German Chancellor Angela Merkel yesterday to warn her that he would probably not be able to win passage of the levy in his parliament.  Merkel apparently told Mr. Anastasiades that he needs to negotiate with the ‘Troika’ and that it was not her decision to make.   But the Cypriot President knows who wears the pants in Europe, and Merkel is the one he needs to convince in order to get some concessions from the group of rescuers.  The vote was supposed to occur today, but most believe it will now be delayed while policy makers work to find an alternative way to raise 5.8 billion euros in exchange for a 10 billion euro bank bailout.  The one day bank holiday was extended to the end of the week in order to try and buy the leaders some additional time. The bank levy of 6.9% of deposits under 100k and 9.9% of those accounts over that amount is basically a tax on depositors which will be used to shore up the banking system.  The Cypriot banks have attracted numerous ‘questionable’ deposits from Russian businessmen, with assets in the banks equal to over 7 times the GDP of the small Island nation.  EU policy makers now seem willing to relax the levy on the smaller depositors while ratcheting up the fees for the larger accounts in order to arrive at the same 5.8 billion euros. As was the case with the origins of the Euro debt crisis, the rescue package being presented to Cyprus is very small in the bigger picture of the EU.  But investors are worried that precedence could be set with this new tax on deposits, and a bank ‘run’ could quickly spread to banks on Europe’s mainland.  For now the negotiations seem to have calmed the markets, and the euro is holding steady in the mid $1.29’s. BOE Governor Mervyn King believes more stimulus is needed to support Britian’s economy.  King continues to look for ways to keep the UK economy from slipping into a third recession in five years, and has decided to ignore inflation which has stayed above the 2% target for 38 straight months.  In recent interviews, King suggested he would like to see the pound decline further and has voted to increase the bond buying of QE. The markets will probably give the BOE what they desire; a weaker pound sterling.With a relative calm returning to the markets, the Japanese yen got back to weakening vs. the US$.  The yen had appreciated vs. most other currencies as investors moved money out of ‘risk’ assets and back into the safe havens of the yen and US$.  But with a break in the euro crisis saw investors moving back out of the yen as they predict even more aggressive stimulus moves by the Bank of Japan.  Analysts at JP Morgan and Barclays both released reports yesterday predicting the BOJ will release additional stimulus into the Japanese economy as early as the next policy meeting in April.  The BOJ Governor will step down today, clearing the way for the newly elected Haruhiko Kuroda who has pledged to do whatever it takes to combat deflation which has gripped Japan for over a decade.The New Zealand dollar fell for a second day after Finance Minister English reiterated his thoughts that the kiwi remains overvalued.  English has been working hard to try and ‘jawbone’ the kiwi lower suggesting “There may be a correction in valuation with the exchange rate when the US economy is clearly picking up, and there are signs of that now.”  As I wrote yesterday, English and the other policy makers in New Zealand have a real problem with the value of the kiwi as they would like to lower rates to try and drop the currency’s value, but doing that risks inflating a housing bubble.  So for now they have decided to just try to talk the value of the kiwi lower, and their efforts were helped a bit by the euro crisis and the ‘risk off’ day which resulted.  But inflation is beginning to pick up, and the words of the New Zealand Finance Minister won’t be able to counter the flow of funds once international investors regain confidence in the global recovery.  Even English has to admit there really isn’t much he can do about the appreciation of the kiwi since the value is driven to a large extent by QE in other parts of the globe. “We don’t really have a way of influencing the valuation.”  The kiwi should remain well supported on these dips which could be looked at as buying opportunities. Finance officials on the other side of the Tasmin Sea aren’t as concerned about their currency’s value.  The Australian dollar traded near a 5 week high yesterday after central bank Deputy Governor Philip Lowe defended the higher exchange level of the Aussie dollar.  Minutes from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s March 5 meeting were released overnight and stated there are signs the Australian economy is finally responding to the lower interest rates.  Commenting on the minutes, Deputy Lowe suggested the higher exchange rate and savings levels will help to stabilize the economy.  The higher Aussie exchange rate has helped contain inflation which was at risk of rising during the big mining industry boom the country has been through recently.  Lowe’s comments suggest the RBA is satisfied with the progress they see in the economy, and will likely keep things right where they are at their next meeting on April 2nd.  This is good news for holders of the AUD$.I had a reader ask me to comment on the price of Gold, as I haven’t mentioned the metals recently.  I thought Tim Smith did a fantastic job of discussing gold in this Sunday’s edition (how about that picture of the rainbow over our building?  That was not photo shopped – and the rainbow ended up being a double).  But I will certainly oblige the reader and give you a quick update on the metals markets this morning.  Gold jumped to a two week high yesterday, moving above $1,600 for the first time since the beginning of March.  The European debt crisis and resulting ‘risk off’ day caused investors to seek out gold as a safe haven.  The metals have stabilized again, as investor’s fears have subsided a bit; but gold has held on to the $1,600 handle.  Silver and Platinum also moved higher yesterday but have a ways to go to make up for the losses both have sustained in the past 30 days.  Gold is now flat in the past month, but the price of Silver is down 2.32% and Platinum is down 6.85%.  I guess one way to look at it is that Platinum and to a lesser extent Silver present better buying opportunities at their current levels. Then there was this… I get a lot of information forwarded my way on a daily basis.  Jamie Hogan, my friend and co-worker in our Wealth Management area forwarded me an email compiled by John S. Wilson, CFA, Managing Director of Raymond James. In the email Mr. Wilson recalls some comments a strategist made at a seminar about a year ago.  I read these comments and just had to share them with you:In light of some recent comments from politicians that we don’t have a spending problem, we have a revenue problem; it might be worth sharing some stats with you that I haven’t brought up for a while.–              The US has added $5.5 trillion to our deficit in the last four years.–              Some politicians postulate and bloviate that all we need to do is raise taxes on the wealthy to fix our problems.–              Just for grins, let’s define ‘wealthy’ as everyone with a household income over $100,000, the top 13% of our earners.–              Let’s not raise their taxes to 50% or 60%, let’s raise them to 100% and confiscate everything they make.–              We would raise an additional $700 billion in tax revenue. (remember, we’ve added $5.5 trillion to our deficit in just the last four years, which equals $1.4 trillion/year.–              So, if we confiscate through taxes all income of those making $100,000 or more, we will still be adding roughly $700 billion annually to our deficit at the rate we have been going.  And, we only get to do this once before everyone affected decides to move to Chile. Now tell me we don’t have a spending problem.  End of arithmetic lesson.  Notice I didn’t say algebra, I’ll be satisfied if Congress can just master arithmetic.Chris again.  Unbelievable isn’t it?  I thought so too, so I dug a bit into the numbers.  According to the IRS, the top 10% of all individual taxpayers had an AGI of 3.856 trillion in 2010.  So a 100% tax rate on these top earners would raise just under 4 trillion dollars, not the 700 billion suggested above.  These top earners did pay a total of 721 billion at the current tax rates (that is where the confusion came in).  So the numbers aren’t exactly correct, but they still make a very dramatic point, we can’t simply tax our way out of our problems. We have to attach spending also!To recap. The Banks in Cyprus extended their holiday in order to try and give policy makers more time.  The euro seems to have stabilized just below $1.30. BOE Governor King wants more stimulus which isn’t good news for holders of the sterling.  The Kiwi fell after Finance Minister English said it remains overvalued, but officials in Australia think the strength of the Aussie dollar is a good thing for their economy.  And Gold moved higher yesterday after investors sought a haven from renewed worries about the European banks.Currencies today 3/19/13. American Style: A$ $1.0376, kiwi .8234, C$ $.97736, euro 1.2947, sterling 1.5126, Swiss $1.0585. European Style: rand 9.2167, krone 5.8050, SEK 6.4412, forint 235.61, zloty 3.2063, koruna 19.7665, RUB 30.84, yen 95.30, sing 1.2498, HKD 7.7608, INR 54.375, China 6.2158, pesos 12.422, BRL 1.9827, Dollar Index 82.666, Oil $93.91, 10-year 1.94%, Silver $28.86, Gold $1,603.83, and Platinum $1,576.25.That’s it for today.  Another busy day on the desk yesterday, and thank goodness we had most of the crew back to work.  Christine and Chuck were the only two missing from the desk yesterday, and our little Christine is back to work today so we are just about at full capacity again!  We all drew our ‘teams’ for our March Madness bracket – we don’t spend the time to try and predict winners but instead just draw the name of a team out of a cow-butt (long story there).  I got a number 16 seed (play in), a number 15 seed Albany, and #5 Wisconsin.  Not much hope of winning it all, but it will still be fun!  The sun is out!  It seems like we haven’t seen the sun in weeks, but we have a bright blue sky and the sun is streaming in so this will hopefully shape up to be a great day.  Thanks for reading the Pfennig, and I hope you all go out and have a Terrific Tuesday!!Chris Gaffney, CFA Vice President EverBank World Markets 1-800-926-4922 1-314-647-3837last_img read more

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Dear Reader Our main feature today is by Casey

first_imgDear Reader, Our main feature today is by Casey Research Chief Economist Bud Conrad, who explores the most urgent narrative in finance that hardly anyone is talking about: the decline of the US dollar. I don’t mean the dollar’s long, slow slide to zero that began on December 23, 1913 when the Federal Reserve was born. Everyone paying attention knows that the Fed has sapped the dollar of 98% of its purchasing power since then. Criminal? Yes. But not urgent. I’m talking about Vladimir Putin’s plans to circumvent the dollar in global trade. He, together with China, is making alarming progress toward undermining the dollar’s hegemony and all of the vast advantages the US Empire enjoys because of it. The US government, of course, has a long history of protecting the dollar’s dominance and won’t let its special privileges go easily. Just for fun, before I pass the baton to Bud, let’s take a peek at the fate of three other prominent figures who dared to challenge king dollar: September 2000—Saddam Hussein proclaims that he will sell Iraq’s oil for euros instead of dollars. March 2003—The United States invades Iraq. Nine months later, US forces find Hussein hiding in a spider hole. December 2006—Hussein is hanged. — Late 2010—Muammar Gaddafi calls on African and Muslim nations to create a new gold-backed currency called the dinar to challenge the dollar. March 2011—A coalition of Western countries attacks Libya. October 2011—Gaddafi is either beaten or shot to death, depending on which report you believe. — February 2011—Dominique Strauss-Kahn, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, calls for a new world currency to challenge the dominance of the US dollar. May 2011—A maid at the Sofitel Hotel in New York accuses Strauss Kahn of sexually assaulting her. Strauss-Kahn loses his position at the IMF. He is subsequently cleared of any wrongdoing. Russia and China, of course, are no Iraq and Libya. With that backdrop, I pass it to Bud to analyze this latest assault on the dollar, and what it means for your portfolio.last_img read more

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Google Brain founder Andrew Ng creates 175 million AI Fund

This document is subject to copyright. Apart from any fair dealing for the purpose of private study or research, no part may be reproduced without the written permission. The content is provided for information purposes only. Citation: Google Brain founder Andrew Ng creates $175 million AI Fund (2018, February 7) retrieved 18 July 2019 from https://phys.org/news/2018-02-google-brain-founder-andrew-ng.html AI researcher Ng launches $175 million investment fund Silicon Valley is increasingly betting that artificial intelligence will be the next breakthrough technology, and its latest stake is a new venture fund led by a respected AI expert. ©2018 The Mercury News (San Jose, Calif.) Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC. Explore further Andrew Ng is considered a pioneer in AI, having created the Google Brain deep learning AI system while at Mountain View. He also taught AI at Stanford University and recently worked as the chief scientist for Chinese tech giant Baidu.Ng announced he has raised $175 million from Silicon Valley’s biggest venture capital firms, such as Sequoia, NEA, Greylock, plus Softbank, to create the AI Fund.”We have raised $175 million, and will be sequentially initiating new businesses that use AI to improve human life,” wrote Ng in a Medium post. “As we grow these businesses, we also hope to help many of you enter the field of AI, and do the important work of building an AI-powered society.”Ng equated the current state of AI to the early days of electricity nearly a hundred years ago. Before electricity became widely adopted, electrical lighting went through massive innovations. Ng believes AI—which he dubbed “the new electricity—is at a similar inflection point.”Just as the work of Thomas Edison had helped build an electric-powered society, it is now time to build an AI-powered society,” wrote Ng. “The AI Fund will be working hard to accelerate this important global transformation.”The AI Fund was publicly announced Tuesday, Jan. 30, but the fund seemed to have been in operations already. Ng wrote that AI Fund is pursuing three “new AI-powered directions” that will be announced later.Ng also announced Eva Wang, formerly a partner at the law firm Fenwick & West specializing in corporate and securities law for American and Chinese tech companies, as a partner and COO, and Steven Syverud, a former business development manager at Coursera, as partner.Ng will also be running a company of his own while leading the AI Fund. After leaving Baidu last year, Ng announced in December his new startup called Landing.ai, which seeks to bring artificial intelligence to the manufacturing industry. AI Fund will be funding Landing.ai, according to Ng.Foxconn, the Chinese manufacturing giant best known for building iPhones, partnered with Landing.ai and worked with the startup since last July, Ng said in a separate Medium post in December.Ng has been vocal about the massive displacement of human jobs thanks to the rise of AI. He advocated for a New Deal-like economic program to help displaced workers—who range from call-center workers to radiologists, truck drivers—learn new skills, according to the MIT Technology Review.”As with any societal transformation, the transition toward AI will be jarring for some,” wrote Ng in the AI Fund Medium post. “It is an urgent societal problem to address the impact of AI and automation on jobs. My team is continuing to invest heavily in global training programs. I want to make sure every person can gain the skills needed to thrive in the AI economy, and every person has a shot at meaningful work.” read more

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